My opinions don’t run much stronger than they do with weather forecasting services. Are you a Weather Channel or a Wunderground or a Weather Service? God forbid you are an Accuweather or a Weatherbug. 

If you have ever wondered which weather apps/forecasts to trust and how to use them to find out what’s really going to happen, well that’s what I am going to explore with this blog. I also just really want to critique what I think needs critiquing. 

To preface, I have literally spent my life (all 22 years minus those 5 years where I was a helpless infant) studying weather forecasts. I interned at the Weather Service for a summer. I’ve read more articles on weather than anything else. Even though I know more than the average joe (or jane) about weather, I still rely on a typical weather forecast, just like you, to know what the weather will be in the next few hours and days. 

First, a tip before I dive into anything else because this is true for every weather app and it’s probably true for many aspects of our lives. No one can accurately (without any questions at all) forecast beyond a day or two. Often, meteorologists are trying to figure out the weather for the next 5 hours during significant weather events. So, when you see a 30-day or 15-day or 7-day or even a 5-day forecast, at best those are indicators of what’s to come. The problem is that they are communicated as truth when they are portrayed the same way as the forecast for tomorrow. Keep that in mind when you view forecasts.

At best 5-15 day forecasts are indicating a trend that meteorologists are noticing in the weather models. Are the 5-15 day temperatures decreasing or increasing? Are the days getting wetter or drier? The way some weather apps deal with this is by lowering precipitation probabilities after day 5. Other weather apps like Accuweather are apparently so “accuright” that they know what the weather will be, what you will be eating for lunch, and what time you will sneeze on the day we have 0 new cases of the coronavirus in the world. Somehow they know all of that!

Moving forward.

The Weather app

First, I want to discuss the Weather app (sometimes known as Apple Weather. It’s the one that comes with your new iPhone. You open it to the always-pleasant weather of Cupertino, California, slide to the right and you find New York City and then slide to the left and you find your hometown. Now, there are some cool things about the weather app. It looks nice. It has animated weather in the background. It shows sunrise and sunset and tells you what the temperature feels like. 

I deleted the Weather app within an hour of getting my first iPod touch. Well no, I couldn’t delete it then, so I stored it in a folder on the 2nd page so I would never find it. I think I was 11. I have never used it. 

To circle back to my beginning point, here’s the biggest problem with the Weather app: it tells you what the weather will be as though it’s capital T Truth. It’s so confident in itself it doesn’t give you an option to view any additional information. Like, when it shows a rain cloud, will it rain all day? What’s the probability of rain? How much rain? Should I be building an ark or planting my garden? Could it still be sunny at some point in the day? 

The Weather app: No, from 12 am to 11:59 pm Monday, it will rain. Then sun.

Me:  Um, Apple Weather, it’s dark at 12 am. 

The Weather app: No. Sun

That’s the other thing. What’s the nighttime forecast? 

Once you remove all of that information, what are you left with? There’s nothing to learn and yet, so much confidence is being communicated. On the forecast below, I would assume that there won’t be any sun for the rest of my life, and I should just plan to be inside for the next week.

Then that week actually happened and I can report it did rain every day that week, but I was also able to be outside in the sun every day. Also, those temperatures were WAY off. The highs Monday and Tuesday were 60 degrees and the lows never dropped below the mid-40’s. The Weather app showed a late February forecast in late April. I don’t understand.

Sure, the hourly forecast is helpful. But that’s it. Just make it an hourly forecast for today. Don’t lie to everyone. 

The other problem I have with the Weather app is that it will say the town you live in and nothing more. In Bellingham, the weather varies drastically depending on whether you live on the north side of town, the south side of town, right by the water, or at 800’ elevation. On the Weather app, it’s all just Bellingham, and specifically the Bellingham airport. That forecast above may have been slightly more accurate for the Bellingham airport, but not for Lake Samish area.

In summary, the Weather app portrays confidence it doesn’t have and removes so much information in the name of simplicity that it has nothing left to communicate. 

The three forecasting services that are worth discussing are the Weather Service, Weather Channel, and Wunderground. 

Weather Service

First, the Weather Service (weather.gov). I used to adamantly defend the Weather Service in high school. I was cool then. The Weather Service is the US Government’s weather forecasting organization. And it has all kinds of kinks, but it’s pretty good.  You may have rarely viewed a Weather Service forecast, though, because they are not allowed to produce their own weather app. If they did they would be competing with the private sector and I guess that would be problematic. The problem is, MOST PEOPLE USE APPS. So, something that your US Government spends over $1 billion annually on has to sit on the sidelines. Hmm, sounds like everything else. You can fix this by finding the forecast you want and then adding it to your home screen, like so: 

The Weather Service is quietly the most critical weather forecast producer. If you ever receive a warning on another weather app, it’s from the Weather Service. The unique aspect of the Weather Service, which no other private organization could do, is that they have forecasting offices in most major cities- 122 offices in total. Compare that with Weather Channel, which has 1 office in Chicago, 1 office in LA, and 2 offices in Georgia (convenient). Because of all of these offices all around the country, the Weather Service can provide local forecasts from experienced experts who are just as impacted by your local weather as you are. They understand the local variations.

Another unique and helpful aspect of the Weather Service is that you can click anywhere on their map for the whole United States and they have a forecast for that exact location. It gets a little less accurate the further away from city centers you go, but they have refined this over the years, and it’s not bad. 

Something I appreciate about the Weather Service is that their forecast page provides a lot of information that can all fit on one page. When they show you a picture of a rain cloud on day 5, they have a short description below explaining that there is only a chance of rain after 11 am and it will be mostly cloudy. So, I don’t have to look at an image of a rain cloud and think, I guess it’s going to be dreary and rainy on Wednesday. In fact, a forecast like that makes me hopeful that Wednesday could turn out decent. And it did! The actual high was 65 degrees, the low was 46 degrees and it was dry and mostly cloudy the entire afternoon. Way to go Weather Service! They also only provide a probability forecast for the next 3 days. After that, they know the accuracy decreases, so they really underemphasize the forecast. 

Now, I said earlier that I used to defend the Weather Service. Then, I moved to Bellingham and my taste for the Weather Service changed. 

The first issue. Even with 122 offices, the Weather Service still primarily focuses on the cities they are located in. The problem: the meteorologists manually input the forecasts. A Weather Service meteorologist literally paints a map with the forecast. They have algorithms that help, but if they want to forecast precipitation probability, precipitation type, humidity, wind, etc.,  they have to manually input this for each variable and each 12-hour period for their whole forecast region. So, their ability to focus on outskirt regions, like basically-Canada-Bellingham is almost non-existent. 

The second issue. They only make forecast updates every 6 hours, with the biggest update always happening at 3 pm. The problem: when the current weather changes drastically and we suddenly have a strong approaching thunderstorm or it starts snowing unexpectedly, the Weather Service isn’t going to provide any kind of update on their forecast to reflect this for a while. At best, they will provide a “Short Term Forecast” or “Hazardous Weather Outlook” headline at the top of a forecast page, which will provide a little blurb on where a storm is headed and who will be impacted. And that’s only if you live in a populated enough area for it to matter. In Bellingham, we’re just too far away for them to help us often times.

How do we solve these issues? In comes Wunderground. 

Wunderground

Wunderground (or Weather Underground or wunderground.com) is the elite forecaster in my opinion and here’s why: they produce accurate forecasts nationwide and communicate the information well. Wunderground takes the data from thousands of local weather stations to provide strong local forecasts that are based on statistical experience. Moreso, you can access their map and choose your forecast from the weather station nearest you. 

They have great visuals that demonstrate the kind of variability of weather in a day that we would expect to see (not just a cloud with rain all day).

Also, their hourly forecast updates like every 5 minutes, so if you’re ever wondering what could happen in the next 3 hours, ALWAYS refer to Wunderground. It will give you a good sense of precipitation total and probability and temperature with trustworthy accuracy. The only trouble with Wunderground is that they also portray strong confidence in their forecast beyond 5 days, which isn’t helpful. But at least you can get a sense of variability within the day to know it’s not just going to be rainy or sunny forever. 

Weather Channel

Then there is Weather Channel (weather.com). Wunderground and the Weather Channel are basically the same forecasting systems. They are both owned by IBM and every time I compare their forecasts, they are identical. The difference between them is entirely in the way they communicate the forecast. Weather Channel strips away a ton of the data that Wunderground provides while still providing enough information to get a good sense of the day. I like Weather Channel for its tasteful simplicity.

I have 3 pet peeves (we’ll call them PP’s) with Weather Channel. PP #1- Their website takes forever to load because they are trying to display so much on one page including far-too-many advertisements. PP #2- Weather Channel uses riduculous words in their news articles. Check out this article:

Not only do they personify weather but they make it some malicious villain that attacks the whole earth. That being said, their TV station is very important and useful for keeping the public informed on dangerous weather across the country. A minor PP. PP #3 (this is oh so small and yet SO FRUSTRATING!)- Their “10-day forecast” is a 15-day forecast! It just outright lies to you! Count ’em!:

Then, there’s Accuweather. A joke…

…it doesn’t help. It doesn’t.

In Conclusion: Your Guide to Reading Forecasts

Here’s how I approach obtaining a weather forecast

If I want to know the weather for the next few hours- I check Wunderground. Look at all of that information displayed so clearly!

If I want to know the forecast for the next few days, I check the Weather Service. If I want to get a sense of the trend our weather is taking in the next week, I refer to the 5-7 day period of the Weather Service forecast or the 5-10-day period of the Wunderground forecast. If I want to get a sense of the long-term trend in the weather I refer to the 10-15 day period of the Weather Channel forecast. The 10-15 day forecast is always subject to completely change within 2 days, but it can often provide an idea of colder, warmer, wetter, or drier trends to come.

Lastly, if I want false hope for a snowy winter, I check the 30+ day Accuweather forecast in late September. Sadly, I still do this every year.